Week 2 - Video 2
History of Turkey-EU Relations (2012-2022)
Prof. Atila Eralp
METU, Department of International Relations
MEDIATE, 6 March 2022
Prof. Eralp briefly introduces the past and the future of the Turkey-EU relationship based on the two crucial patterns. By stating that the relationship has a long-lasting and cyclical character, Eralp draws attention to the downward periods of the integration process. The relationship is revisited under the effects of the multiple crises in the international realm and the shifts in the democratic context in the domestic dimension. Eralp finalizes his words with a review of the predictions for the future of the Turkey-EU relationship.
Outline of the Video Presentation
Themes of the periodization
Crucial patterns in the Turkey-EU relationship:
i. Turkey-EU relationship is a long-lasting one
ii. Turkey-EU relationship is a cyclical relationship with ups and downs
The time factor in the Turkey-EU relationship: Ups and downs of the relationship and the future expectations.
A brief history of the downwards relationship between Turkey-EU
Starting of the accession negotiations in 2005: the beginning of a long-lasting down period
The effect of multiple crises on the EU integration related to constitutional, financial, and refugee crises, Brexit issue, pandemic, and Ukraine crisis. There are three themes of the effect of crises, namely widening, enlargement, and deepening.
Changes in the French and German attitudes toward enlargement of the EU
Cyprus factor in brief
The shift in the domestic context in Turkey accompanying the backsliding of democratic and political reforms
Freezing of the accession process
A change in the Turkey-EU relationship into a transactional one by cooperating on functional issues such as migration, energy, foreign policy, and security.
About the future of the Turkey-EU relationship
Possible scenarios of the Turkey-EU relationship by the FEUTURE Project on the grounds of whether the stance of the relationship is convergence, cooperation, or conflict
Shift into a more conflictual pattern in the relationship
Five predictions on the future of Turkey-EU relationships
The present stance of EU and Turkey on the relationship
Winds of change
Turbulent global context