Week 2 - Video 2

History of Turkey-EU Relations (2012-2022)

Prof. Atila Eralp
METU, Department of International Relations
MEDIATE, 6 March 2022

Prof. Eralp briefly introduces the past and the future of the Turkey-EU relationship based on the two crucial patterns. By stating that the relationship has a long-lasting and cyclical character, Eralp draws attention to the downward periods of the integration process. The relationship is revisited under the effects of the multiple crises in the international realm and the shifts in the democratic context in the domestic dimension. Eralp finalizes his words with a review of the predictions for the future of the Turkey-EU relationship.


Outline of the Video Presentation

Themes of the periodization

Crucial patterns in the Turkey-EU relationship:

            i. Turkey-EU relationship is a long-lasting one
            ii. Turkey-EU relationship is a cyclical relationship with ups and downs

The time factor in the Turkey-EU relationship: Ups and downs of the relationship and the future expectations.

A brief history of the downwards relationship between Turkey-EU

Starting of the accession negotiations in 2005: the beginning of a long-lasting down period

The effect of multiple crises on the EU integration related to constitutional, financial, and refugee crises, Brexit issue, pandemic, and Ukraine crisis. There are three themes of the effect of crises, namely widening, enlargement, and deepening.

Changes in the French and German attitudes toward enlargement of the EU

Cyprus factor in brief

The shift in the domestic context in Turkey accompanying the backsliding of democratic and political reforms

Freezing of the accession process

A change in the Turkey-EU relationship into a transactional one by cooperating on functional issues such as migration, energy, foreign policy, and security.

About the future of the Turkey-EU relationship

Possible scenarios of the Turkey-EU relationship by the FEUTURE Project on the grounds of whether the stance of the relationship is convergence, cooperation, or conflict

Shift into a more conflictual pattern in the relationship

Five predictions on the future of Turkey-EU relationships

The present stance of EU and Turkey on the relationship


Winds of change
Turbulent global context